What if the Armed Opposition Had Succeeded?

(The Question Raised on November 28, 2024, Ten Days Before al-Julani's Movement)

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The most likely scenario is that if the Syrian revolution or the opposition had succeeded in overthrowing the regime, control would have been swiftly seized by Islamic groups, who would have considered this victory a divine blessing for their long patience under oppression and tyranny. If we assume that the resistance led by the Islamic groups won in their struggle against the ruling regime, the question arises: what would the outcomes be? And what resources, mechanisms, and steps would be activated to establish a new Syria, positioning it as an advanced and civilized center among the nations of the world?

The best answer to this question would come from the leaders of the Islamic opposition, such as those from Jabhat al-Nusra and the Muslim Brotherhood. The response is likely to fall under the title "When the help of God and victory come," and thus, victorious opposition leaders would begin by thanking and praising God and applying His law. But what are the essential components, resources, and mechanisms needed to establish a modern Muslim Syrian state?

Would the new Syrian state follow in the footsteps of the Abbasid Caliphate during its golden age of science and creativity, only to face a devastating loss at the hands of Hulagu and his pagan army in a matter of days, against the strongest Islamic army of that time?

Or would this victorious minority grow to lead the Islamic world like the Ottoman Empire, which failed after four centuries of championing Islam and leading Muslims?

Or perhaps they would become like the Muslims of Andalusia, who ruled Spain for nearly eight centuries, only to be expelled in the harshest manner?

Maybe they would restore the glory of the Muslim Brotherhood, who could not maintain power in their home country of Egypt for more than twelve months, despite nearly ninety years of doctrinal and political preparation!

Or perhaps they would be luckier than the Taliban, controlling the fate of a nation of about thirty-five million people, suffering from poverty, ignorance, and drug addiction?

Would the Syrians join the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to improve their representation within its 57 member states? Most of these governments have provided little more than limited and politicized military support, often restricting themselves to condemnation without tangible action to aid the Syrian people. For example, despite their wealth, Gulf states did not accept any Syrian refugees until 2014, when Saudi Arabia accepted a limited number for purely political reasons.

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If we assume that the armed opposition succeeds in bringing about genuine change, will its leaders be capable of implementing the following agenda to establish a democratic, secular Syrian state that enjoys stability and holds a respected position among the civilized nations? The agenda would include the following steps:

Establishing a Comprehensive Democratic System

• Separation of powers, ensuring judicial independence and strengthening its role in protecting rights and freedoms.

• Building modern state institutions.

• Restructuring the military and security forces to be national institutions, impartial to any sect or ideology, with an emphasis on respecting human rights.

• Strengthening the role of government institutions to ensure the provision of basic services such as education, health, and infrastructure.

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Achieving Transitional Justice and National Reconciliation

• Creating an independent mechanism to investigate crimes committed during the war, with guaranteed fair trials.

• Organizing national reconciliation programs to ease tensions between different groups and ensure the return of refugees and displaced persons.

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Reconstruction and Economic Development

• Launching a comprehensive plan to rebuild destroyed cities and restore infrastructure.

• Strengthening the economy by supporting productive sectors like agriculture and industry, and encouraging foreign investment.

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Managing Diversity and Promoting National Unity

• Formulating policies that recognize sectarian and ethnic diversity and guarantee the rights of all.

• Preventing any form of discrimination based on religion, race, or gender.

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Strengthening International Relations

• Joining international organizations and fostering cooperative relations with regional and Western nations.

• Maintaining political decision-making independence while balancing national and regional interests.

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It is likely that Islamic groups and their leaders would adopt many initial steps to build a new state, insisting that these steps align with Islamic law as outlined in the Qur'an and the Sunnah. Here lies the main challenge for the new government: finding a balance or reconciliation between the goals of state-building and the requirements of these groups.

The Islamic leadership is expected to present the following agenda as their plan for government participation and the legitimacy of ruling Syria:

• "Men are the protectors and maintainers of women."

• "A people will not succeed who appoint a woman to lead them."

• It is permissible to beat a woman for disciplining her.

• Marriage to minors is permitted, following the example of Prophet Muhammad.

• The hand of the thief (male or female) should be cut off if the stolen property exceeds a quarter of a dinar.

• A woman is divorced by saying "You are divorced," and she may lose everything except for her dowry, which could be minimal.

• "A male gets the share of two females" in inheritance.

• A woman who is divorced three times cannot return to her husband until she has married another man (with full marriage).

• Adulterers, both male and female, should be flogged one hundred lashes as punishment.

• Non-Muslims are required to pay jizya (tax) "while they are humbled."

• Non-Muslim female prisoners are considered "lawful" for Muslims, and they can either be married or sold.

• Those who apostatize from Islam should be killed after being given three days to repent.

• A Muslim man can marry a woman from the People of the Book, but a Muslim woman cannot marry a non-Muslim man.

• The testimony of a woman is half that of a man.

• Children are encouraged to pray at age seven and are punished if they fail to do so by age ten.

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