The Key Milestones of Bashar al-Assad's Rule

Rise to Power

On July 17, 2000, Bashar al-Assad was sworn in before the People's Assembly, having won the presidential election with 97.29% of the vote. This election, held one month after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, was uncontested. Hafez had ruled Syria unchallenged for 30 years.

On June 10, 2000, the day of Hafez al-Assad's death, the People's Assembly amended the constitution, lowering the minimum age for presidential candidacy from 40 to 34—specifically tailored to Bashar, who was born in 1965.

Bashar al-Assad became the Commander of the Armed Forces and the Secretary-General of the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party.

Early Political and Social Developments

• On September 26, 2000, around 100 Syrian intellectuals and artists petitioned the government to pardon political prisoners and lift the state of emergency, which had been in place since 1963.

• Between September 2000 and February 2001, Syria witnessed a brief period of political openness, known as the "Damascus Spring," during which limited freedom of expression was tolerated. However, this ended in the summer of 2001 with the arrest of ten opposition figures.

Assassination of Rafik Hariri & Syrian Withdrawal from Lebanon

• On February 14, 2005, Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated in Beirut. The Lebanese opposition blamed the Syrian regime and its allies, demanding the withdrawal of Syrian forces.

• Damascus denied any involvement in the assassination.

• Under mounting pressure from mass protests in Lebanon and the international community, Syria withdrew its last troops from Lebanon on April 26, 2005, ending a 29-year military presence.

Syrian Civil War (2011–2024)

The Syrian Civil War, which continues as of October 2024, began with nationwide protests on January 26, 2011, as part of the Arab Spring. Demonstrators called for Assad’s resignation, the overthrow of the government, and an end to five decades of Ba'ath Party rule.

By March 15, 2011, peaceful protests had spread, but the government responded with brutal force, framing the uprising as an "armed insurrection led by extremist groups." Reports surfaced of soldiers being executed for refusing to fire on civilians, though the government denied any defections.

As the uprising escalated, civilians and military defectors formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA), launching an armed rebellion. By April 2011, Islamist groups emerged, and by 2012, the conflict turned into a full-scale civil war with the use of heavy weaponry, including helicopters and aircraft.

Chemical Weapons & Western Warnings

• Western governments accused the Syrian regime of using chemical weapons. A major chemical attack on August 21, 2013, in Ghouta killed over 1,400 people.

• The U.S. had previously warned that chemical weapons were a "red line," but President Obama ultimately refrained from military intervention.

Foreign Intervention

• 2013: Hezbollah, Iran’s key ally, officially joined the war on Assad’s side, sending thousands of fighters.

• 2015: Russia launched a military intervention on September 30, at the Syrian government's request. Russian airstrikes shifted the balance in favor of Assad.

Power Struggles & Economic Decline

• In 2019, authorities seized "Al-Bustan Association," linked to Assad’s cousin, billionaire Rami Makhlouf.

• In late 2019, a travel ban was issued against Makhlouf, and dozens of employees from his telecom company, Syriatel, were arrested.

To maintain control, the regime strengthened intelligence services, expanded repression, and focused on economic survival. Citizens, struggling with daily hardships, were deterred from opposing the regime due to severe consequences like imprisonment or execution.

Causes of the Conflict

Hafez al-Assad’s authoritarian rule and suppression of opposition laid the groundwork for the conflict. The regime built a powerful intelligence apparatus and elite military units, such as the "Defence Companies," dominated by the Alawite sect. These forces operated under the ideology of the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party.

When Bashar al-Assad took power in 2000, expectations were high for reforms. However, rather than democratizing, the regime maintained its authoritarian grip, leading to growing public resentment.

By 2011, with high unemployment, corruption, and economic hardship, many Syrians saw an opportunity to challenge the regime. Opposition groups received support from regional powers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, both driven by political and sectarian interests.

Outcomes of the Conflict (2011–2024)

1. Syria's Fragmentation

   • Northern Syria: Turkish-controlled, covering ~7% of the country.

   • Government-held areas: 65% of Syria, backed by Russia and Iran.

   • SDF-controlled areas: 26% of Syria, backed by the U.S.

   • Al-Tanf region: U.S.-controlled (~2% of Syria).

2. Sanctions & Economic Collapse

   • The U.S. imposed the Caesar Act, devastating Syria's economy.

   • 90% of Syrians now live below the poverty line.

   • Inflation skyrocketed to 4,000%, making wages nearly worthless.

3. Displacement & Refugee Crisis

   • Internal displacement: 5 million people.

   • External refugees: 6 million, primarily in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Europe.

4. Impact on Israel

   • The war weakened Iran and Hezbollah, reducing threats to Israel.

   • The Syrian crisis diverted global attention from the Palestinian issue.

5. Exploitation of Syria's Resources

   • Foreign powers established military bases and gained economic privileges at Syria’s expense.

6. Humanitarian Toll

   • Over one million people killed.

   • Tens of thousands detained or forcibly disappeared.

   • Syria became a hub for drug trafficking and organized crime.

Fate of the Opposition

• In 2012, mass protests erupted across Syria. Initially, hundreds of thousands chanted slogans like "Go, Bashar, Go!" and "The Syrian people are one!"

• The opposition, expecting the regime to collapse within weeks, underestimated Assad’s resilience.

• The government deployed intelligence operatives and shabiha (militias) to infiltrate and suppress protests.

By 2013–2018, opposition forces controlled large territories, but Russian and Iranian intervention helped Assad reclaim major cities. By 2020, the government had reasserted control over Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama.

Most opposition factions disintegrated, with thousands of rebels killed or imprisoned. The Syrian refugee crisis intensified as millions fled.

Why Did the Revolution Fail?

Despite widespread opposition to Assad, several factors led to the revolution's failure:

1. Brutal government suppression: The regime crushed dissent with heavy military force.

2. Disunity among opposition groups: Infighting and ideological differences weakened the movement.

3. Foreign interventions: External powers prioritized their own agendas over Syria’s future.

4. Fear and repression: The regime maintained control through mass surveillance and severe punishments.

5. Economic hardships: As survival became the priority, political resistance diminished.

Today, Syria remains divided, devastated by war, and under continued authoritarian rule, with little hope for political change.

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